Tungsten prices have risen for more than a month amid tight supply. How will the market perform in the future? [SMM Commentary]

SMM News on July 17:

After closing the first half of the year (H1) with a 21.89% increase, wolframite concentrate prices continued to rise overall in July. The main reasons driving the recent increase in tungsten prices are tight supply of raw materials in the tungsten ore market, strong reluctance among suppliers to lower prices and hold onto inventory, difficulty in finding low-priced supplies in the market, and an upward shift in the market's transaction center. Additionally, multiple tungsten enterprises raising their long-term contract prices in the first half of July boosted the confidence of market participants and drove tungsten prices to show a generally stable with slight rise trend.

Multiple Tungsten Enterprises Raise Long-Term Contract Prices in the First Half of July; Market Awaits Implementation of Long-Term Contract Prices in the Second Half of July

Reviewing the long-term contract prices of some tungsten enterprises in the first half of July, we can see that the guidance price for Jiangxi Tungsten Industry Holding Group Co., Ltd.'s national standard first-grade wolframite concentrate in the first half of July 2025 was 173,000 yuan/mt, a slight increase of 1,000 yuan/mt compared to the second half of June. Chongyi Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry Co., Ltd.'s long-term contract procurement prices in the first half of July were as follows: 1. 55% wolframite concentrate: 172,000 yuan/mt, an increase of 2,000 yuan/mt compared to the previous round; 2. 55% scheelite concentrate: 171,000 yuan/mt, an increase of 2,000 yuan/mt compared to the previous round; 3. ammonium paratungstate (national standard zero-grade): 252,500 yuan/mt, an increase of 1,500 yuan/mt compared to the previous round.

After the long-term contract prices of multiple tungsten enterprises in the first half of July had a price-supporting and market-stabilizing effect on the market, the market is currently focusing on the implementation of long-term contract prices of tungsten enterprises in the second half of July.

Tight Raw Material Supply; Wolframite Concentrate Prices Rise for Over a Month

Tungsten prices have been on an overall upward trend this year. Reviewing the average price trend in the first half of the year, we can see that the average price of SMM wolframite concentrate (≥65%) on June 30 was 174,000 yuan/mt, an increase of 31,250 yuan/mt compared to its price of 142,750 yuan/mt, with a growth rate of 21.89%. Comparing the daily average price of SMM wolframite concentrate (≥65%) in the first half of this year (151,079.06 yuan/mt) with that in the first half of 2024 (134,168.8 yuan/mt), the semi-annual daily average price increased by 12.6% YoY.

After experiencing the increase in the first half of the year, entering the second half of the year, SMM wolframite concentrate (≥65%) is still on an overall upward trend. Its daily average price on July 16 was

On July 16, the tungsten market maintained a generally stable with slight rise trend. The supply of ore in the market was tight, suppliers were bullish and held onto inventory, the transaction center for spot orders in the market continued to rise, downstream ammonium paratungstate faced significant cost pressure, had insufficient willingness to sell at low prices, and mainly followed the price increase, with overall market transactions being average.

Ore side, as of July 16, SMM black tungsten concentrate (65%) closed at 178,000-179,000 yuan/mt, up 1,000 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Market inventory was low, with upstream mainly shipping under long-term contracts and downstream restocking based on rigid demand, leading to stable overall trading.

Ammonium paratungstate: Today, SMM ammonium paratungstate (≥88.5%) was quoted at 260,000-262,000 yuan/mt, up 4,000 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, reaching a new high. Ammonium paratungstate smelters were strongly driven by costs, with rapid market catch-up. Downstream powder companies mainly restocked based on rigid demand, while some ammonium paratungstate producers did not quote prices, focusing instead on long-term contract deliveries.

In the short term, ore prices surged in the first half of July due to expectations of reduced supply, driving up costs in the tungsten market. Additionally, the increase in long-term contract prices by major enterprises in early July supported the market, stabilizing prices. Downstream buyers and traders, expecting further price increases, showed stronger willingness to restock, boosting market activity and confidence.

At the beginning of the week, some downstream demand orders were released, increasing market inquiries. Although available supplies were tight, overall trading volume remained stagnant, with tungsten prices continuing to stabilize. Jiangxi Tungsten Industry and Zhangyuan Tungsten continued to lower their long-term contract quotes in the second half of March. Notably, Jiangxi Tungsten Industry's long-term contract price for the second half of March was only 500 yuan/mt lower than that of the first half of March. The reduction in Zhangyuan Tungsten's 55% black and white tungsten concentrates for the second half of March also narrowed. This indicates that price fluctuations in the market were very limited, with the tungsten market remaining in the doldrums as most market participants adopted a cautious wait-and-see attitude.

Jiangxi Tungsten Industry and Zhangyuan Tungsten continued to slightly reduce their long-term contract quotes.

Jiangxi Tungsten Industry Holding Group Co., Ltd. set the guidance price for national standard grade one black tungsten concentrate at 140,500 yuan/mt for the second half of March 2025, down from 141,000 yuan/mt in the first half of March.

Chongyi Zhangyuan Tungsten Co., Ltd. announced its long-term contract prices for the second half of March as follows: 1. 55% black tungsten concentrate: 137,500 yuan/mt, down 1,500 yuan/mt from the previous round; 2. 55% white tungsten concentrate: 136,500 yuan/mt, down 1,500 yuan/mt from the previous round; 3. Ammonium paratungstate (national standard zero grade): 206,000 yuan/mt, down 3,000 yuan/mt from the previous round. Note: The above prices include 13% VAT.

The Ganzhou Tungsten Association's forecasted average prices for tungsten products in March 2025 showed that 55% black tungsten concentrate was 139,000 yuan/mt, down 4,000 yuan/mt from the previous quote; APT 209,000 yuan/mt, down 3,500 yuan/mt; medium-grain tungsten powder 320 yuan/kg, down 2 yuan/kg.

Wolframite concentrate and ammonium paratungstate (APT) have remained generally stable since mid-March.

Prices:According to SMM quotes, on July 17, the price of wolframite concentrate (≥65%) ranged from 137,000 to 138,000 yuan/metric ton (mt), with an average price of 137,500 yuan/mt. This average price has remained stable at 137,500 yuan/mt since March 11. Regarding the price of APT (domestic production): The average price of APT (domestic production) has remained stable at 207,000 yuan/mt since March 13.

Spot market:Although supply has increased with the gradual resumption of production by tungsten raw material enterprises, ore suppliers are reluctant to lower prices for shipments, and the market circulation of goods remains tight. Meanwhile, the recovery speed of market demand is relatively slow, and downstream enterprises are unwilling to purchase at high prices. Despite a recent increase in inquiries from the downstream market, the overall market remains deadlocked in the game between upstream and downstream players. The wait-and-see sentiment in the market remains strong, and trading activity is low.

In February, APT exports decreased by 25.09% YoY.

APT exports:According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the export volumes of APT in the first two months of this year were 102.5 mt and 20 mt, respectively. Compared with the export data of 51 mt and 26.7 mt in the first two months of 2024, APT exports increased by 100.98% YoY in January and decreased by 25.09% YoY in February. By analyzing the tungsten export data from the General Administration of Customs, it can be seen that the export volume of APT in 2024 was 782.4 mt, a decrease of 2.53% compared with the export data of 802.7 mt in 2023.

On February 4, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued an announcement, deciding to implement export controls on items related to tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum, and indium. The announcement came into effect on the day of its issuance. When responding to questions from reporters about the implementation of export controls on items such as tungsten, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce stated that implementing export controls on items such as tungsten is an international common practice. As a major producer and exporter of items such as tungsten globally, China has long been firmly committed to fulfilling its international obligations, including non-proliferation, and has implemented export controls on specific related items in accordance with the law based on the need to safeguard national security and interests. The addition of related items this time reflects the control concept of balancing development and security, which is conducive to better safeguarding national security and interests, fulfilling international obligations such as non-proliferation, and ensuring the security and stability of the global industrial chain and supply chain. Exports that comply with relevant regulations will be permitted.

Market Outlook

Before there is a significant improvement in downstream demand for tungsten, the tight supply of raw materials in the market may lead to a continued stalemate in tungsten prices amid the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream players. If there is a noticeable change on either the supply or demand side, the stalemate in the tungsten market is expected to be broken. The market is currently waiting for more positive news from the demand side and is also monitoring the export situation of enterprises that have been permitted to export items related to tungsten in compliance with relevant regulations.